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I wasn't really surprised by Federer's round to Karlovic because he just made it past Robby Ginepri in the second round where he to break back in the second set in order to force a tie-break which he eventually won.
In this third round match he also lost the first set on a tie-break but won the second 6-4 and I think he must have thought that he was going to wrap up the last set but Karlovic won it in a tie-break.
World number two Rafael Nadal will take over as number one if he wins in Cincinnati and thats a very strong possibility but even he doesn't it looks like Federer's reign at the top could be coming to an end.
I think Federer is still a classy player and if he wins the first set then I think he can easily win a match from there but the problem is that he is losing the first set giving his opponent some confidence.
I still whatever happens he will still be the man to beat at the US Open and I will not be surprised to see him retain his title.